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⚖️ What It Means for Lagos and Nigeria’s Political Future
🗳️ Introduction
Nigeria’s political landscape is being shaken by an emerging rift between two of its most prominent leaders—President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the nation’s 16th President, and Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, the re-elected Governor of Lagos State. Once seen as close political allies, recent events suggest that their relationship is under significant strain. While neither party has officially confirmed a fallout, multiple incidents and insider accounts point to a deepening divide that could reshape Lagos’ political dynamics and the future of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
🇳🇬 Tinubu’s Presidency: Reforms, Revenue, and Regional Influence
Since his inauguration on May 29, 2023, President Tinubu has undertaken bold economic reforms:
- Fuel subsidy removal
- Floating the naira
- Unification of the foreign exchange system
Though these moves have triggered inflation and increased the cost of living, Tinubu argues they are yielding positive results, citing:
- Over ₦9.1 trillion in government revenue in H1 2024 (a significant rise from 2023)
- Improved foreign direct investment inflows
He has also launched key infrastructure projects like the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and Sokoto-Badagry Highway, cementing his legacy as a reform-driven leader.
🌍 Global and Regional Presence
Tinubu has been actively engaged on the international stage:
- Held diplomatic talks with the UK Prime Minister in July 2024 to boost trade and security
- Hosted the 50th ECOWAS anniversary in Lagos (May 2025), a symbolic nod to Lagos as ECOWAS’ birthplace
🏙️ Governor Sanwo-Olu: Progress and Loyalty Under Scrutiny
Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, re-elected in 2023, has been widely praised for his contributions to Lagos’ infrastructure and economic growth. His administration has received accolades, including recognition from Ikoyi Club 1938 and other civic bodies. A loyal member of Tinubu’s political dynasty, Sanwo-Olu has often credited Tinubu for shaping his career since his first political appointment in 2002.
However, recent developments suggest a chilling of this once-close relationship.
⚠️ Timeline of Tensions: Signs of a Strained Alliance
👋 Public Snubs and Political Absences
Several events have signaled growing friction:
- May 2025 – Lagos-Calabar Highway Inauguration: Tinubu reportedly snubbed Sanwo-Olu, acknowledging Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat instead, despite Sanwo-Olu bowing in greeting.
- June 2025 – Deep Seaport Road Flag-Off: Sanwo-Olu was absent. His seat was marked, but again, Hamzat stood in. Tinubu’s remarks were notably directed to the deputy governor.
These actions have fueled rumors of a serious personal and political rift.
🏛️ House of Assembly Crisis and Political Fallout
A major flashpoint was the 2024 attempt to unseat Lagos House of Assembly Speaker Mudashiru Obasa. Tinubu is believed to have backed Obasa, while Sanwo-Olu’s alleged neutrality during the crisis was perceived as an indirect challenge to Tinubu’s authority.
Fallout from this saga reportedly led to:
- Reduced Sanwo-Olu influence in local government primaries
- Waning clout in national APC activities
- Withdrawal of security details from traditional rulers aligned with Sanwo-Olu
🧩 Theories Behind the Rift: Power, Loyalty, and 2027 Succession
🔄 Disputes Over Political Appointments
Sources suggest that tensions may be driven by conflicts over political control within Lagos APC, especially regarding:
- 2027 gubernatorial succession plans
- Federal appointments originating from Lagos
- Tinubu’s desire to retain control as Lagos' political godfather
🤐 Allegations of Disloyalty
Unverified reports claim Sanwo-Olu may have:
- Covertly supported opposition candidates (Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi) during the 2023 elections
- Attended the controversial birthday party of Aisha Achimugu abroad, which reportedly displeased Tinubu
- Failed to secure Lagos for APC during the 2023 presidential election, contributing to Tinubu’s loss of the state to Peter Obi
Though these claims remain speculative, they have damaged trust within the APC's inner circle.
🏛️ Political Implications: What’s at Stake?
This rift could have serious consequences for both Lagos and national politics:
- Weakening of APC’s internal cohesion in Nigeria’s most strategic state
- Sanwo-Olu’s push for autonomy could undermine Tinubu’s political hegemony
- Potential reshuffling of APC leadership in Lagos ahead of 2027 elections
Some analysts believe that Sanwo-Olu is positioning himself as an independent power broker, which may appeal to younger or reform-minded factions within APC.
🧠 Historical Context: Mentor and Protégé
📚 Tinubu’s Political Legacy
As Lagos Governor (1999–2007), Tinubu transformed the city’s economy, laying the groundwork for its rise as West Africa’s commercial capital. Dubbed the “Father of Modern Lagos,” his political influence has shaped the careers of multiple Nigerian leaders—including Sanwo-Olu.
🌱 Sanwo-Olu’s Rise to Power
Sanwo-Olu’s path was paved through Tinubu’s political network. He replaced Akinwunmi Ambode—a former Tinubu appointee ousted during the 2018 APC primaries. His 2023 re-election, though successful, was marred by allegations of electoral violence and legal questions around his running mate’s eligibility.
📝 Final Thoughts: Power Shift or Political Theatre?
While there’s no official confirmation from either camp, the signs of political turbulence are hard to ignore. From public snubs to deep policy disagreements, the Tinubu–Sanwo-Olu relationship may be transitioning from mentorship to rivalry.
Whether this is a calculated political maneuver or the beginning of a major realignment within the APC, it is a storyline that could shape not only Lagos State’s political destiny but also Nigeria’s trajectory leading up to 2027.
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